Consumers’ Earnings Expectations Edge Up, So Do Concerns Over Losing a Job

Consumer expectations for earnings growth edged up in December as did concerns over the prospect of losing one’s job. That is according to the December 2022 “Survey of Consumer Expectations” released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data.

Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth rose by 0.2 of a percentage point to 3.0% in December. The increase was most pronounced for respondents over the age of 60 and those with a high school education or less.

The survey also found the average perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months rose by 0.9 of a percentage point to 12.6% — its highest reading since November 2021. On the flip side, the average probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily within the next 12 months increased by 0.7 of a percentage point to 19.3%. Both increases were most pronounced for respondents over the age of 60.

The New York Fed’s survey also found unemployment expectations slipped.

Mean unemployment expectations — or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 40.8%.

Separately, the report found that median one-year-ahead inflation expectations among those surveyed declined again in December, falling by 0.2 of a percentage point to 5.0%. That’s the lowest reading since July 2021.

The report gathers information on how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing and education to behave. It also collects insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth as well as expectations about future spending and access to credit.

It’s based on a survey of a panel of approximately 1,300 heads of households.

Original Article:(https://www2.staffingindustry.com/Editorial/Daily-News/Consumers-earnings-expectations-edge-up-so-do-concerns-over-losing-job-64194)